Due to frequent malfunctions in acrylonitrile plants in Europe and America, the export volume of acrylonitrile from China surged from January to February 2021, tightening domestic spot supply and setting a new high for acrylonitrile prices since 2020.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic market received a significant increase in export inquiries from abroad. However, before the holiday, most intermediaries were bearish on the post holiday market and actively sold during trading, resulting in extremely limited domestic spot supply after the holiday.

Boosted by this, domestic prices have risen significantly after the holiday. According to ICIS data, the average price of acrylonitrile out of tanks at ports in East China increased from 12000 yuan/ton on February 18th to 15500 yuan/ton on March 3rd, an increase of 29.17%.

Meanwhile, since mid February, the upward trend in acrylonitrile prices has accelerated, with FOB prices in the United States jumping. According to ICIS data, the FOB price of acrylonitrile in the United States rose to $2650 per ton on February 25th, while on February 11th, the price was $2050 per ton, a two-week increase of $600 per ton.

Due to the opening of the export arbitrage window, the export enthusiasm of domestic suppliers in China has increased. China's acrylonitrile production capacity accounts for 33.18% of the global market.

According to market news, it is conservatively estimated that the monthly export volume of China from January to February 2021 will exceed 10000 tons, while the total export volume of China for the year 2020 was only 73000 tons.

Due to the price advantage of export, some domestic suppliers export all the surplus beyond the domestic contract volume, and some traders participate in spot export. Most of the export destinations are South Korea, India and Türkiye.

Extreme cold weather occurred in mid February in the United States, causing several acrylonitrile units in the country to declare force majeure. As a major exporter of acrylonitrile, the production of major global producers of acrylonitrile, such as Ineos and Oshengde, has been severely affected in the United States, exacerbating the previously tight global supply of acrylonitrile

Adding insult to injury.

At present, the cold wave in the United States has ended, and some acrylonitrile units have been restarted one after another. However, due to the shortage of propylene supply, the operating rate may not be able to significantly increase in the short term. In addition, a set of acrylonitrile units of Ineos located in Germany will enter planned maintenance in early March; The cornerstone chemical plant located in the United States will also enter planned maintenance in mid March. The tight supply of acrylonitrile in Europe and America may last for at least the first quarter.

Due to the rapid rise in domestic acrylonitrile prices, downstream industries sensitive to raw material prices, such as acrylic fiber and amide, cannot rule out reducing loads or arranging parking, which is worth the attention of industry operators. (News source: ICIS Anxunsi)